Global warming and other temperature trends.

An analysis by Timo Niroma, Helsinki, Finland.

What signs are there of the socalled global warming or global cooling in Helsinki in 1829-2008 and two rural places in Finland in 1900-2008? How do they accord to HADCRUT3 or UAH data?

What is this?

Figure 01


In this study I try to get the answer to the question, what indications there are in Helsinki and some other Finnish places of trends in the ever changing climate. I compare the Finland temperature changes with worldwide ones from Hadcrut3 and UAH.

1. I begin with the changes in 1972-2008. The begin year is chosen to include the great ENSO oscillation in 1976 with a few preceding years. From there I go piecemeal towards the most recent part of it. I show also differences between the various seasons and even some months. I will also do comparisons with two rural places here in Finland, Uto and Sodankyla. Uto is a very small island in the Baltic Sea just on the border of the Gulf of Finland). Helsinki is a harbour city on the Gulf of Finland, several hundred kilometers east of Uto, but practically on equal latitude, 60 degrees North. Sodankyla is situated in the middle of Finnish Lappland, at latitude 67 N, but only 1.5 degrees east from Helsinki longitude. Also a HADCRUT3 comparison ("the world temperature") is made for the years 1994-2008. My view is that the HADCRUT3 data is very unreliable before the middle of the 1990s because of UHI (Urban Heat Island), the great changes in Russia and Eastern Europe, the bias of most stations on the northern continental areas and the lack of understanding of the accuracy needed on individual stations. With this caution in mind I use them as comparison only from 1972. That's a pity because the temperatures from the 1930's would be badly needed. Now they are available only from Europe and US (corrected by Steve McIntyre).

2. Which was the warmer decade in Helsinki: the 1930's or the 1990's? Has the warm continued after 2000?

3. A bit colder period reigned in 1950-1987 between Modern Warm Period in 1930-1949 and since 1988. But how much colder? And was the colder period even throughout that time?

4. How did the temperature behave in Helsinki from 1830 to 1930? It is generally known that some rise there is, but how much and when was it at its peak?

6. Are the changes in the Sun's activity seen in the data?

There began a global warming in the 1980's. It continued until at least 1998, the warm continued until 2005. But after that there has first been a slow cooling, which however accelerated in 2008. We have here a graph of HADCRUT3 and UAH/MSU from January 2007 to November 2008. The temps that HADCRUT3 measures are compiled from surface measures from thousands of observation stations on ground or buoys on sea. UAH/MSU has been measured from satellites and indicate temperature from lower troposhere (1-2 km above surface). The temps are in tenths of degrees C (e.g. 20 = 0.2 degrees Celsius). The baseline is the mean temperature in 1961-1990. Differences are caused besides the different altitude and method of measurements, also from the bias that HADCRUT3 is more inclined to the continental than ocean areas plus more data are fron Northern than Southern hemishere. Also the UHI (Urban Heat Island) effect takes its toll. UAH should be more reliable in these contexts but it is subject for more complicated calibration than HADCRUT3, although that also contains calibration.

The second figure shows the Hadley temperature in 1988-2008.

The third figure shows UAH in 2001-2008 during the time after the great El Niño in 1998. According to IPCC 2001 and 2007 the temperature should rise by 0.2 degrees C per decade. The oscillation in 2001-2007 and sudden drop in 2008 are nowhere predicted by IPCC.

The fourth figure shows the international monthly sunspot number in 2000-2008 or the cycle 23 from its maximum to its end minimum.




Are there any signs of global warming or other trends in the Helsinki temperature in 1972-2008?

A warm period (defined in this study as a period when the annual temperature is in the range of 5 and 7 degrees C) began in Helsinki in 1988 and has continued since. In fact the years 1982-1984 already belonged to this category, but the record-breaking ultracold years in 1985-1987 (caused by arctic winds in winter) interrupted this period. After the cold 1960's the years 1972-1976 were warm, but the ENSO in 1976 had global effects, so that Finland also had a sudden return to colder climate in 1977-1981.

This kind of oscillation does not give much credence to the claim that the constantly increasing CO2 in atmosphere would be the cause for these warmings (and coolings?). Maybe better vice versa. Because of this I seek alternative explanations, and one of them is our old friend, Sun.

If the supposed greenhouse warming (called also "the climate change", which however has been an ongoing process as long as the Earth has had an atmosphere) really depends mainly (as the supporters claim) on CO2, the temperature should be in a continuous rise with the observed rising amount of CO2 at least according to how IPCC has it. The rise of the amount of CO2 has been steadily increasing since at least from the 1950's. If the temperature does not increase with increasing amount of CO2, the CO2 theory, at least in its linear form plus with the feedback system, with which IPCC thinks, go with no negative feedback from vater vapour, must be wrong.

For the period 1972-2008 (37 years) beginning a few years before the great ENSO event in 1976, but after the cold period of 1950-1971, the mean annual temperature in Helsinki has been 5.76 degrees Celsius (min. 3.3, max. 7.6, SD: 10). For the period 1988-2008, after the ultracold years 1985-1987 (20 years), the mean has been 6.24 degrees (min. 4.9, max. 7.6, SD: 7). So leaving out the years 1972-1987 causes the mean to rise by 0.48 degrees. In contrast to the global cooling trend after 2005, in Helsinki there has been a local warming caused by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. The southwesterly winds have carried warm air especially in winter and autumn.

Because of the high seasonal differences I have divided the year in two halves: from January to June (winter and spring) and from July to December (summer and fall).

Winter and Spring

For the period 1972-2008 the mean annual temperature for the first part of the year has been 3.03 degrees Celsius. For the period 1988-2008 the mean has been 3.68 degrees. So leaving out the years 1972-1987 causes the mean to rise by 0.65 degrees. And today: after the peak of 2000, the mean of the 8 most recent years is 3.53 degrees. Leaving out the years 1988-2000 gives a fall of 0.15 degrees.

After the dramatic drop from 1975 with 4.6 degrees to 1976 with only 1.4 degrees, caused by the swapping of ENSO, the temperature remains cold, 1.5-2 degrees from 1977 to 1982. We have then in 1985 and 1987 the two coldest half-years during the 180 year temperature series in Helsinki. The temperature falls in both years to -0.8 degrees. In 1988 we have a dramatic rise to 4.0 degrees and in 1989 the still more dramatic rise to the record-breaking 6.0 degrees. 1990 is still very warm: 5.3 degrees. After that the temperature has oscillated without a trend between 1.2 and 5.6 degrees. The four coldest year have been 1994, 1996, 2003 and 2006 all below 2.3 degrees. The four warmest years have been 1992, 1995, 2002 and 2008 all above 4.7 degrees.

Summer and Fall

For the period 1972-2008 the mean annual temperature for the latter part of the year has been 8.51 degrees Celsius. For the period 1988-2008 the mean has been 8.81 degrees. So leaving out the years 1972-1987 causes the mean to rise by 0.30 degrees. SO THE SUMMER/FALL RISE FROM 1972-1987 TO 1988-2008 IS ONLY HALF OF THE RISE DURING THE WINTER. The most probably reason are the south-westerly winds from the Atlantic. And today: after the peak of 2000, the mean of the 8 most recent years is 9.44 degrees. Leaving out the years 1988-2000 gives a rise of 0.63 degrees. SO THIS IS MORE THAN TWICE THE EARLIER RISE. THE SUMMER WARMING MORE THAN COMPENSATES THE WINTER COOLING. So it's better again to observe how this builds up.

The ENSO swapping causes a 1975/76 drop of 2.4 degrees from 9.4 to 7.0 degrees or only half of amount of winter drop. Now again the temperatures remain relatively cold oscillating between 6.2 and 8.2 degrees in 1977-1981. After the warm Summer 1982 there is again relatively cold from 1983 to 1990. Then begins a 2-3 year oscillation between warm and not-so-warm Summer/Falls, however with a rising trend. There are two notable exceptions for the warming, the Summers/Falls of 1993 and 2002 are cold. The warming peaks first in 1999-2000 and a second time in 2006 (with the record of 11.2 degrees). The two most recent years, 2007-2008, are even, their second half has a temperature of 9.7 degrees, at the level of years 1974, 1975, 1982, 1991, 1999, 2003 and 2004.

Figures 2.x

WARNING: HADCRUT-temperatures are unreliable for various reasons, especially before about 1995.

The temperatures in Helsinki compared with HADCRUT3 ("the world temperature") in 1972-2007. The lines added are Distance Weighted Least Squares. The temperatures are in tenths of degrees of Celsius (for example 61 = 6.1). For Helsinki they are real. For HADCRUT3 they are relative so that 1977=0 (for example 3 = 0.3 degrees above 1977).

The temperatures in Helsinki compared with HADCRUT3 ("the world temperature") in 1972-2007. The lines added are DWLS. The Helsinki temperatures are in tenths of degrees of Celsius (for example 61 = 6.1). For Helsinki they are also real. For HADCRUT3 they are relative so that 1977=0 plus they are hundreds of degrees for Celsius (for example 30 = 0.3 degrees above 1977). This transformation is done, because HADCRUT3 is the mean temperature of thousands of places, Helsinki only one. The tenfold scale brings the values more in sight, otherwise this figure is a copy of the previous one.

Note the drop after the 1998 el Niño, the standstill from 2001 to 2005 and the new drop in 2006-2007. Helsinki warming is most probably due the heavy and lasting south-east winds.

The temperatures of Helsinki, Uto and Sodankyla in 1972-2007. Uto and Sodankyla should be UHI-free. So one can see how UHI-free Helsinki is (in a botanical garden, no high buildings for hundreds of meters, 4 meter from sea level, 50 meter from Gulf of Finland). The lines added are DWLS. The temperatures are in tenths of degrees of Celsius (for example 61 = 6.1).

The summer-fall (from July to Decamber) temperatures in Helsinki in 1972-2007. The line added is DWLS. The temperatures are in tenths of degrees of Celsius (for example 61 = 6.1). All the rise in Helsinki has been on this side of the year.

The winter-spring (from January to June) temperatures in Helsinki in 1972-2007. The line added is DWLS. The temperatures are in tenths of degrees of Celsius (for example 61 = 6.1). Compare the smoothness of the winter since 1990 with the rise of the summer and fall.

The temperatures in Helsinki compared to HADCRUT3 in 1988-2007. The line added is DWLS. The Helsinki temperatures are in tenths of degrees of Celsius (for example 61 = 6.1). The HADCRUT3 temperatures are in hundreds of degrees of Celsius relative to the year 1977. The rise (IPCC's global warming) can be seen from 1992 to 2003. The rise turned to cooling after 2005.

The temperatures of Helsinki, Uto and Sodankyla in 1996-2007. Uto and Sodankyla should be UHI-free. The lines added are DWLS. The temperatures are in tenths of degrees of Celsius (for example 61 = 6.1).

The temperatures in Helsinki compared to HADCRUT3 in 1996-2007. The line added is DWLS. The Helsinki temperatures are in tenths of degrees of Celsius (for example 61 = 6.1). The HADCRUT3 temperatures are in hundreds of degrees of Celsius relative to the year 1977. Smoothing with DWLS shows neatly how temperatures rose from 2000 to 2004, but the amount was lesser each year. From 2005 there is a cooling trend and the temperature in 2007 was back to the same figures as in 2001. The HADCRUT temperature was in 2001 0.41 degrees above 1977 and 2006 and 2007 0.42 and 0.40 degrees above 1977.

The monthly temperatures in Helsinki comparing the years 2006 and 2007. The temperatures are in tenths of degrees of Celsius (for example 61 = 6.1). Notice the higher temps in January, especially in March, and April. Beginning in June all monthly temps are lower in 2007 than in 2006.

The temperature in Helsinki and world temperature according to HADCRUT3, smoothed from 1988-2007 to 1989-2006 to avoid QBO.

Figure 03

QBO = Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, which causes about every other year to be colder and every other warmer thus hiding a bit the general trend. To show the trend more clearly, the QBO has been dampened by a three year smoothing. The temperatures are in tenths of Celsius (e.g. 55 = 5.5). The curves are Distance Weighted Least Squares.

It is interesting look at the HADCRUT3 temperatures that are used in the IPCC reports. The third IPCC report was published in 2001, and the temperatures last until 1999, and show rightly the continual rise that however accidentally stopped in 1998. Thus the badly biased hockey stick of Mann was made the icon of that report ja it has been one of the icons also of Al Gore. Now the fourth IPCC report was published in 2007 and the temperatures available would have been available until 2005 (but not always extended until there). The use of newer than May 2005 studies was forbidden. If used fully they should have raised the question, why the temperatures in 2002-2005 are for four years practically equal. The rise before that was even yearly triumphed as indicating that the model of the IPCC is correct. About this standstill there is no debate it is hardly mentioned. Badly for the Mann model still was the analysis of Steve McIntyre and Ross McKitrick who showed it in 2003 as badly biased. Now the 2006-2007 data show that the temperature has dropped. Nobody in Bali in September seemed to notice the standstill, not to speak of any drop. Even if temporary, the cessation and in 2002-2005 and global cooling in 2006-2007 should cause some debate or at minimum the cessation and global cooling should made public the same way the rise was made until 2003, and some do it today, maybe thanks to Al Gore who has had more publicity than the IPCC 2007 report.

Cold and warm quarters in Helsinki in 1988-2007.

I have made a crosstable with the year and its four quarters. The table contains each year divided in four parts (from January to March (1q), from April to June (2q), from July to September (3q) and from October to December (4q)). The five coldest quarters are marked by -, the four warmest quarters are marked by +. The amounts of + and - is in relation to the relative differences.

year /   1q   2q   3q   4q /   1q   2q   3q   4q                    
1988 / -2.3 10.4 15.8 -0.2        ++         ---  
1989 /  1.3 10.8 15.0  1.3   ++++ ++++            sunspot maximum
1990 /  0.2 10.4 14.1  2.2   +++  ++   --  
1991 / -2.4  8.2 15.4  3.6        ----      (++  )Pinatubo shield 4q
1992 / -0.2  9.8 15.0  1.1  (++  )                Pinatubo shield 1q
1993 / -0.9  9.8 12.8  0.4   ++        ----  --   great sunspot drop
1994 / -5.6  8.6 16.0  2.1   ---- ---   
1995 / -0.4  9.9 14.7  0.4   ++              --  
1996 / -5.8  8.2 14.3  2.7   ---- ---- --         sunspot minimum
1997 / -2.0  9.1 16.6  1.0             +++ 
1998 / -2.6  8.9 14.2  1.1        --   --         anti-effect of ENSO
1999 / -4.2 10.3 15.9  3.2   --              +
2000 / -1.4 10.0 14.5  5.7             --    ++++ sunspot maximum
2001 / -3.5  9.5 16.5  3.0             +++ 
2002 / -0.8 10.9 16.7 -2.5   ++   ++++ +++   ---- second maximum
2003 / -5.0  8.2 16.5  2.7   ---  ---- +++        great sunspot drop*
2004 / -3.4  9.5 15.6  0.7                   -                  
2005 / -3.2  9.7 16.3  3.6                   ++   great CME in Sun 4q
2006 / -5.6 10.0 17.1  5.1   ----      ++++  +++  Atlantic Multidec
2007 / -2.0 10.5 15.7  3.6        ++         ++
2008 /  0.6 10.5 14.5  4.8   +++  ++   --    ++   Atlantic Multidec
* the drop included in its end the greatest CME ever recorded in 4q

In average Helsinki seems follow HADCRUT3 two years after. Also the direction of the winds causes differences.

Pinatubo and solar effects show however without delay.

Quarterly differences compared with the Solar activity.

The first quarter (January, February, March) = winter

It is interesting to note that the warmest winters occurred in 1989 and 1990. No winter since then has rivalled them. Only in 1925 have both January and February been on the plus side, and one month of these three ones in 1930, 1938 and 1939. The record-warm winters occurred only a few years after the record-cold winters of 1985 and 1987. Two of the coldest winters and two of the warmest winters in 200 years all occurred in 1985-1990. I haven't seen no explanation or model that explains this curious phenomenon.

In the early January 1985 the temperature broke all records of cold since 1829: the daily temperatury was below -20 degrees Celsius almost the whole month (and also in February) and reached -30 degrees in the first part of January. The record was broken in January 1987, which became the coldest ever (since measurements began in 1829) with a low of -36 degrees.

All three months belonged to the warmest third in 1989 and 1992, which fence very good the top of the sunspot 22. The February and March in 1990 also belonged to this category and January and February in 1993 when the cycle 22 began to weaken. The warm February and March in 1995 were due to strong south-west winds. The only warm winter after 1995 has been in 2002 during the second top of the sunspot cycle 23. And in 2003 the January was already the coldest in the whole of this period 1988-2007.

What is still worthwhile to mention is the beginning of January 2005: the 14 first day, the temperature rose above zero every day reaching even a record of +7 degrees. These were due to heavy south-westerly winds that caused the Baltic Sea sea level to rose in record levels, the Helsinki record was 151 centimeters above the mean. And March became the coldest month in 2005, very unusual, almost always the coldest month is either January or February. More extraordinarily: March 2006 has also been the coldest month also in winter 2006. And to add to the wonders: March 2007 has been the warmest March since 1829.

On the cold side, during the period 1988-2007 there were three years, when all the three months belonged to the coldest third, 1994, 1996 and 2006.

Two of the cold winters, 1994 and 1996 correlate with deep dive towards silence in the Sun. The cold winter 2003 could be connected with the deep drop in sunspot activity (actually the end of the top of the cycle 23) from the May 2002 (120 Wolfs) to February 2003 (below 50 Wolfs). In 2006 there are first clear signs of the activity of the Sun descending to low levels.

Now we must make some questions: If the first sunspot maximum in 1988-1992 really caused the warm winters in 1989-1992, why didn't the second maximum in 1999-2002 not cause? Actually in 2002 there was a rather warm winter (5th warmest), but not in 1999 or 2001. A simple answer would be that the latter sunspot maximum was lower than the former (160 v. 120 at peak), but an sich that doesn't explain the phenomenon, it shows only a probable correlation. A corollary question is: why were there no cold winters before 1994, when the coldest winters occurred in 1994, 1996, 1999, 2001 and 2003-2006? The winters 1994 and 1996 are explainable by the sun's activity, but why was it warm in 1989-1992 and cold in 2003-2006?

One possible explanation: During the first period we were recovering from the coldies in 1950-1987. The albedo here in North was low: the ice cover was shrinking, the snowline went norther up, the seas were still cold causing weak evaporation causing weak cloudiness causing lack of snow. During the second period the situation had changed. The seas had warmed causing cloudy and snowy winters and the albedo must have went up a bit (blocking and throwing back the sunlight). So this is normal negative feedback. Warm and cold winters oscillate in 22 year cycle or in the Hale cycle beat.

The second quarter (April, May, June) = spring

The difference between the coldest (1996) and warmest (1989) winter was 7.1 degrees. Considering this, the difference between the coldest and warmest spring (2002) was very modest, only 2.7 degrees. So why bother to search anything from spring. Anyway I do it. The spread of the cold springs is large: 1991, 1994, 1996, 2003 and the 5th coldest would be 1998. Ok, there is a continued cold from winter in 1994, 1996 and 2003, so the above explanation for these would be enough.

The warm winter/spring period reigned from 1988-1990. A bit colder period reigned from summer 1993 to summer 1996 (Hale cycle low coincides with nearing sunspot minimum) with the QBO-induced exception of winter 1995 in the middle of this. Between these periods from summer 1990 to spring 1993 is a no-man's-land (if we ignore the Pinatubo) and the cold spring after a snowy winter caused the albedo of Earth rise both because of clouds and snow in winter caused a delay of summer in spring 1991.

The warm springs obey first our solar framework. They occurred in 1988-1990 and 2002 and so need no more explanation. But the rising trend after 2004 needs an explanation. The most probable are the continuous south-westerly winds.

The third quarter (July, August, September) = summer

In the period 1988-2007 there is only one really cold summer: the summer 1993 with its 12.8 degrees. This is explainable by the solar framework, the drop of the sunspot cycle is at its most rapid phase. The cold summer 1990 falls between the primary top of sunspots in 1989 and secondary top in 1991. The other three cold summers are QBO oscillating beginning during the sunspot minimum 1996: 1996, 1998 and 2000 in a tight frame of 14.1-14.5 degrees.

Now there is a peculiarity when we compare the winters and summers during our investigation period. There is no winter colder than -3 in 1988-1993, but 8 winters are below this limit in 1994-2006, including all the winters in 2003-2006. The summers behave differently, all the summers below 15 degrees occur before 2001, of the five summers at least 16.5 degrees warm four occur after 2000 (The one exception is the summer 1997, as if predicting the on-coming el Nino in 1998). All they are in the narrow range of 16.5-16.7 degrees, except the record-breaking 2006, which reaches 17.1 degrees. The summer 2007 is the first season when the Finnish temperatures are in agreement with the global cooling began in 2006 with its 15.7 degrees. That's also the time when more than every other day in the Sun are beginning to be spotless. Then it had only been a few years from the greatest X-flare explosion ever recorded in Sun in October 2003.

The 2005 warming may also be attributed to the surprisingly active Sun, which despite the nearing minimum was surprisingly active. But the record-high (during 1988-2006) summer in 2006 could tell a different story. The easterly winds that prevailed over the normal south-westerly ones was an exceptional event, that could have marked the changes that were coming in both NAO and ENSO in 2007.

The fourth quarter (October, November, December) = fall

Of the four coldest falls, 1988, 1993, 1995 and 2002, the last one or 2002 has been far the coldest, -2.5 degrees, the other three being near plus minus zero. The cold falls in 1993 and 1995 are in accord with yearlong cold QBO oscillations from late 1993 to early 1994 and again during the sunspot minimum from late 1995 to the summer 1996. The fall 2002 may represent the beginning of the end of the maximum of the solar cycle 23. Every month since August the Sun is a bit less active than previously.

The warmest falls occurred in 2000 and 2006 both with moderate falls on both sides, 1999, 2001 and 2005, 2007. The 2000 fall is the warmest causing with mild winter and spring the year 2000 to be the warmest in Helsinki together with the year 1934 (since the measurements began in 1829). The solar maximum occurred in 2000, so a solar-induced explanation is here again possible. Also in September 2005 occurred the second greatest eruption (CME) in the Sun during the whole sunspot cycle 23 which could explain the warm fall of 2005.

GRAPHS: Quarterly temperatures in 1988-2007

The trend measured with DWLS rather than linear trend (because there is no linearity).

The temperatures are in tenths of degrees Celsius (Helsinki).

DWLS means Distance Weighted Least Squares.

The first quarter (winter).

Helsinki: Cooling first to 1996 and only small oscillation after that.

Figure 05

The second quarter (spring).

Helsinki: As in winter pattern cooling to 1996, then a temporary warming to 2001 and after a standstill until 2004 a new rise which brings the 2006 temperature back to the levels of 1988-1990.

Figure 06

The third quarter (summer).

The warming begins after the cold summer 1993, escalates to three hot summers in 2001-2003 and begins then oscillate to hot 2006 and colder 2007.

Figure 07

The fourth quarter (fall).

Oscillation there is, the most dramatic being the drop from 2000 to 2002.

Figure 08

Annual differences.

First I have taken the seven coldest and seven warmest quartiles. Then I have omitted the lonely ones so that their remains only those cold or warm periods when there are at least two such periods together. In case a tie the eigth is included.

year /    1q   2q   3q   4q                    
1988 /                       
1989 /  ++++ ++++           sunspot maximum
1990 /  ++++ ++++     
1991 /                 ++++ Pinatubo shield 4q
1992 /  ++++      ---- ---- Pinatubo shield 1q
1993 /            ---- ---- great sunspot drop
1994 /  ---- ----     
1995 /            ---- ----
1996 /  ---- ---- ----      sunspot minimum
1997 /                     
1998 /       ---- ---- ---- anti-effect of ENSO
1999 /  ----           ++++
2000 /  ++++ ++++           sunspot maximum
2001 /  ---- ---- ++++ ++++
2002 /  ++++ ++++ ++++ ---- second maximum
2003 /  ---- ----           great sunspot drop + great CME in 4q
2004 /  ---- ----                         
2005 /            ++++ ++++ great CME in 3q
2006 /       ++++ ++++ ++++ southwest winds (AMO)
2007 /
2008 /  ++++ ++++           southwest winds (AMO)          

Very great deviations to the cold side are summer 1993 and fall 2002. They are both periods, when the activity of the Sun dives deeply. A great deviation to the warm side is in winter 1989. That coincides to the high top of sunspot maximum.

If we smooth with QBO, we get an almost continuous cold period from summer 1992 to winter 1999 (cold of course in the period 1988-2007) around the sunspot minimum in 1996 and another from fall 2002 to spring 2004 which coincides with fall of the sunspot maximum in 2000.

Similarly on the warm side, we get the winters and springs in 1989-1990 around the sunspot maximum. Then again from fall 1999 to spring 2000 during the primary top of the sunspot cycle and from summer 2001 to summer 2002 during the secondary top of the sunspot cycle. On the global scale 2005 was a turning point similar to 1975, but now to the cooling side instead of 1975 turning the climate to the warming side. Previous turning to the cooling had occurred in 1950 and to the warming in 1925. Helsinki is however very sensitive to southwest and in late summer also possible easterly winds. Also the surprisingly powerful eruptions in the otherwise declining Sun may have helped. In fall 2007 the Sun however lastly went into a dormant state, and the global temperatures and even the CO2 rise have went down.

The world temperature rose according to Hadcrut3 until about 2002, then was relative stabile for some four years and has been declining since 2005. Helsinki follows Hadcrut with a 2-3 year delay. Helsinki has been warm because of a strong AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation). Sodankyla has a delay of 0-2 years depending on QBO.

Figure 09

The warm period 1988-2008 in Helsinki.

The beginning

The years 1983-1984, with their main temperature of 6.1 degrees, clearly belong to the Modern Warm Period continuing the legacy of the 1930's. But before the full blossoming, first in 1985 there was an anomalously cold winter. Beginning in December 1986, including the all-time cold (since at least 1829) winter 1987 and continuous cold until September 1987 made the year 1987 really exceptional. Speculations about the ice age beginning was common in many writings.

But suddenly in May 1988 there happened a total change: the climate warmed and with slight exceptions this warm period lasted until the May 1993. Especially the winter 1989 was anomalously warm. This awakened now some scientists, who began to talk rightaway with the coined term global warming and speculations of a runaway warming (positive feedback) were taken in use and the blamed reason was man-made CO2. Just two years after the coldest winter since at least 1829. This can be considered a little short-sighted. In fact there is something we really don't understand: During the whole observation period of nearly 180 years from 1829 there is nothing equal this: only two years after the coldest winter in 170 years (that is 1987) there is the warmest winter in 170 years (that is 1989).

The Sun was very active until February 1991, then there was a temporary lull until May and a full recovery in June. Then there was the great eruption of the volcano Pinatubo in early June. The shield produced by its ash may explain the warm fall 1991 and winter 1992 giving a shield for the summer warm not to escape into space. In spring 1993 the Sun begins a dive into less activity and temperatures began to drop.

To be more exact about the period of 1988-1993, we should notice that in main it is characterized by warm winters and springs. From January to May the temperature is high, but from June to December normal to this period.

Then follows a colder period

that begins in June 1993 and ends in 1998. Its climate can esily be explained by solar influence or rather by the lack of it. It is cold throughout this subperiod (in the framework of the period 1988-2006), the only exception being June-August 1997, when the new sunspot period 23 escalates from the minimum in 1996. The unsmoothed Wolf number overrides 10 in April 1997, and 20 in August (the smoothed minimum in 1996 was 8-9 Wolfs). 1996 ends the sunspot cycle 22 and begins the new cycle 23. The smoothed Wolf number goes below 100 in 1992 and is below 50 from 1993 to 1998. The rapid dive from 1992-1993 seems a very possible reason for the sudden cooling in June 1993. In the same vein the sudden rise in 1997 put the temperatures in rise. Only the QBO oscillation (about 2.1-2.2 years) had a small disturbing effect. It was synchronized with the climate in 1994-1998 in Finland downing a bit 1994, 1996 and 1998 and lifting 1995 and 1997.

The new warming

begins in 1998 and reaches its high in 2000. That year is rivalled in Helsinki only by the year 1934, they hold together the warm record since 1829, when the measurements in Helsinki began. In contrast to the first subperiod, now the winters are cold with the exception of the year 2002, but the most pronounced difference are the summers and falls that now are warm with the exception of the fall 2002. In fact the period beginning in September 2002 and ending in June 2003 was extraordinary chilly. Otherwise during this period there was warm from July to December.

The Wolf number climbs above 100 in 1999, reaches maximum of the cycle 23 in 2000 with a clearly lower number than in 1989, or only 121 in 1989 the top was 159). The Wolf number goes below 100 in 2002 and below 50 in early 2004. The very rapid degradation of the Sun's activity beginning in spring 2002 may be the reason for the relative cold in late 2002 and early 2003. The extremes (the all-time hot August in 2002 and the all-time hot July in 2003) surround somewhat mysteriously this relative cold.

One exceptional exception during this warm period there was: a cold May in 1999 (the coldest in 1988-2005). The reason for this cold and anomalous month is explained in my study (The Jovian perihelion with the Sun).

After having bygone its maximum in 1999-2002, the Sun caused two great surprises. The greatest ever-recorded eruption occurred in late October 2003 and a super one still in September 2005. These CMEs (Coronal Mass Ejections) are very powerfull events, that twist the magnetic field of the Earth and thus can also be causing climatic events.

In 2003-2006 there was no warm winters and no cold summers. The falls have had a considerable warming from cold 2004 to vary warm 2006. The springs have warmed from the cold 2003 continually to 2007. The 2006 had all types: winter 2006 was the second coldest in 1988-2007, the summer the warmest during that period, and the fall second warmest (warmer was there only in 2000). In 2007 the winter was considerable warm, colder than however 2002, the spring a bit warmer than in 2006, the summer colder than both in 2005 and 2006 and the fall colder than 2006 and the same as in 2005.

Helsinki warming since 1988

Annual temperature in Helsinki till 2007 is from 1978 5.7 degrees C, from 1988 6.2 degrees C and from 1998 6.3 degrees.

From 1978 to the latest 10 years only March and May have the same temperature, March was warmer temporarily in-between, May has kept its temperature even throughout these periods. All other months have warmed. In its own class is December which has been 1.4 degrees warmer during the last 10 years compared to the last 30 years. 0.7-1.0 warmer are January, April, July and August.

From 1988 to the last 10 years, i.e. 1998-2007 have cooled all the winter months, January, February and March, by -0.8 to -0.5 degrees. May and June have kept exactly their themperatures through these 20 years. A considerable warming, 0.6-0.7 degrees have occurred during fall, in September, October, November and December.

In Helsinki 2008 the January was warmest in 1988-2008, although 1989 was nearly as warm (0.6 and 0.5 degrees). Warmer Januaries there were in 1925 and 1930. February 2008 was the third warmest in 1988-2008 (1.1 degrees), only 1989 and 1990 were warmer (1.3 and 1.6 degrees). In the 21 most recent years was on the 7nd warmest (0.2 degrees). Warmer have been the years 1989, 1990, 1992, 1995, 2002 and 2007.

In Sodankyla, the warmest years in 1988-2007 have been 1989, 2000 and 2005. After the el Niño peak of 1998, the Hadcrut stabilized for the years 2002-2005 and has been declining in 2005-2008.

The years 1988-2007 in Helsinki sorted by temperature

no year temperature
01 1996 4.9 sunspot minimum
02 1994 5.3
03 1998 5.4
04 1993 5.5
05 2003 5.6
06 1988 5.9
07 2001 5.9
08 2002 6.1
09 1991 6.2
10 1995 6.2 
11 1997 6.2
12 2004 6.2
13 1999 6.3
14 1992 6.4 
15 2005 6.6 warmest months: January, September, October, November
16 1990 6.7
17 2006 6.7 warmest months: August, September, October, December
18 2007 7.0 warmest months: March, April, August, December 
19 1989 7.1 sunspot maximum
20 2000 7.2 sunspot maximum

What is behind the recent warming of August to December, sometimes even to next January, when no such warming is seen from May to July? From February to April there is strong oscillation. The most probable reason are the continuing and sometimes stormy winds from south-west, directly from Atlantic.

The years 1994-2007 according to Hadcrut sorted by temperature

For comparison we can take the Hadcrut temperatures. Albeit they can be regarded somewhat reliable (in this case meaning comparable from year to year) only from about 1994. Here is the table ordered by year 1994-2007.

no year temperature
01 1996 0.14 sunspot minimum
02 1994 0.17
03 1995 0.27
04 2000 0.28 sunspot primary maximum
05 1999 0.30
06 1997 0.35
07 2007 0.40
08 2001 0.41
09 2006 0.42
10 2004 0.44
11 2002 0.46 sunspot secondary maximum
12 2003 0.47 great CME in the Sun
13 2005 0.48 great CME in the Sun
14 1998 0.53 el Niño

Now we can see, that contrary to what has happened in Finland the world temperature was colder in 2006 than in 2005 and again colder in 2007 than in 2006. The first three months have also been colder in 2008 than in 2007.

The quantum drop of 1975/1976 leading to the quantum jump of 1987/1988

Raw temperatures in 1968-2006.

Helsinki annual temperatures in tenths of Celsius (e.g. 55= 5.5) in 1968-2006. There is an attempt to reach max Modern Warm Period beginning in 1969 from 4 degrees. The 7 degrees is achieved in 1974-1975, but a catastrophic and sudden drop then follows: the temperature falls back to 4 degrees just in one year (from 1975 to 1976) to remain there for 3 years.

The upwelling of 1975/1976 between the Southern and Northern hemisphere has no apparent reason on Earth. One cosmic explanation is however in offer. All sunspot cycles since 1913 had lasted 10.3 years, but the sunspot cycle no 20 from 1964 to 1976 lasted 11.8-11.9 years. Short cycles correlate with warm and long ones cold periods (Helsinki, Stockholm, Uppsala). After 1976 there has again been short cycles.

A successful rise begins from the record cold 1987 (3 degrees) and in just two years or in 1989 we have reached the 7 degrees. After a smooth low culminating in 1996 (5 degrees) we have again the 7 degrees in 2000. During 2001-2006 the temperature has been around 6 degrees. The average temperature in 2001-2006 has been 6.2 degrees (5.6-6.6 degrees). This is 0.3 degrees warmer than the 1990-1999 temperature between the highs in 1989 (7.1 degrees) and 2000 7.2 degrees). So the oscillation in 1988-2006 gives no warming of statistical significance. What is exceptional in 1988-2006 is the lack of drops like the ones of 1975/1976 and 1984/1985 and the cold years following these drops.

Figure 10A

Smoothed temperatures in 1968-2006.

The great oscillations in 1968-1987 and the lack of them plus the lack of cold periods after 1988 are more clearly seen in the next figure. The temperatures are smoothed by three years (from 1968-2006 to 1969-2005) to get rid of the QBO (quasi-biennial oscillation).

Figure 10B

Doubly smoothed temperatures in 1968-2006.

Still more clearer becomes two features by double smoothing from 1968-2006 to 1970-2004. One feature is the higher temperature in 1988-2006 compared with 1968-1987, the other the lack of any clear trend in temperature after the 1988 rise.

Figure 11

Winter temperatures (January and February) in 1984-2006

We can clearly see that the cold dives in 1985 and 1987 were winter dives and after them the winters have mainly QBO oscillations with a mild dive in 1994.

Figure 12

Summer temperatures (July and August) in 1984-2006

The cold Summer in 1987 is followed by a very warm summer in 1988.

Figure 13

Warmest decade in the 1900's: 1930's or 1990's?
Does the warm period continue after year 2000?

The decadal mean of temperature in Helsinki in the 1900's was clearly warmer in the 1930's and 1990's than during the beginning from 1900 to 1930 and during the intervening 1940-1980 decades. This holds also for the previous century: during 1830-1900 every decade was colder than these two decades. Some data from Sweden tell that the cold period reigned throughout the 1800's. This makes the cold period on the Northern hemisphere as covering at least the years 1805-1925.

But to the point. Climatologists have argued that the 1990's has been the warmest decade since at least from the year 1000, or a millennium record. We know however from many sources (tree rings, historical documents etc.) that around the year 1000 and during the 1100's there was warm. Warmer than today? We don't know, but at least it is possible.

How about the warmest decade since the Little Ice Age (about 1400-1700)? We can't be even sure about that, because there are hints that the latter part of 1700's was warm, Uppsala data hints to that the 1770's may have been as warm as it is today, but this must be taken with caution. But since that we can on firm grounds say that there is only one rival to the 1990's warmth on the Northern Hemisphere and that is the 1930's warmth. During the 1800's there is not a single year, when annual temperature would have exceeded 6 degrees. But the situation has changed since the 1930's. Three times the temperature has exceeded 6 degrees in more than two consequtive years: 1934-1939, 1988-1992 and 1999-2002. That has happened also in 2004-2005.

Because Helsinki seems to reflect very good other European, I continue to use Helsinki as a good standard measure:
the mean temperature in 1930-1939 was 6.0 degrees Celsius,
the mean temperature in 1990-1999 was 5.9 degrees Celsius,
the record temperature of 2000 (with the same temp as in 1934): 7.2 degrees C,
the mean temperature in 2001-2005 has been 6.1 degrees Celsius.

Now this is a little unfair to the 1990's because just the limiting years are between the sunspot maxima of 1989 and 2000, which were the two individually most warm years in 1982-2003. To get equal amount of years, I took the preceding two years, 1928 and 1929, to add them to the 1930's. This should reverse the rival, because they still represent the last breath of the previous cold century. One can see this in the regression analysis of these two decades (+ 2 years). The first number is the starting temperature and second number the yearly increase. Note how much more the temperature rises in the 1930's than in the 1990's:
1930's: 4.7+1.63*(year from 1928 to 1939)
1990's: 5.9+0.35*(year from 1989 to 2000)
And to add the most recent 12 years: 1990-2000's: 5.5+0.74*(year from 1994 to 2005)

If we now take the years 1988-2005, we really get a bit higher temperature than in the 1930's, namely 6.1 degrees compared with the 6.0 degrees. However most informative comparison we get, if we count those years in the 1930's, when today's warm period had been reached, or 1934-1939 and divide the period 1988-2005 into three subperiods, because there is inside that period a colder period. What we get is this:

years     avg   min-max   std
1934-1939 6.4 / 5.8-7.2 / 6
1988-1992 6.5 / 5.9-7.1 / 5
1993-1998 5.6 / 4.9-6.2 / 5
1999-2005 6.3 / 5.6-7.2 / 5

std means standard deviation, the mean difference between the years, in this case pretty the same. Now we see that there are actually three hot periods with mean temperatures of 6.3-6.5 or pretty the same temperature for example in 1934-1939 and 1999-2005.

Ever since the temperature measurements in Helsinki began in 1829, there has been no annual mean temperature exceeding 6 degrees C during the whole 1800's. In 1910 and 1920 the annual temperature was 6.1 degrees, but today's warm was reached only in 1930, when the temperature reached 6.6 degrees, the same as for instance in 2005. In 1931-1933 the temperature was a bit lower, but in 1934 the annual temperature reached a value of 7.2 degrees, which still with year 2000 holds the all-time record since 1829.

Figure 16


The overall rising in temperature since the 1870's had reached today's warmth in the 1930's. Then there was a colder period, especially from 1950-1980, the 1960's being the coldest. But from 1988 till today the temperatures have again risen to the same level they were in 1934-1939. To show this graphically I have put the years 1934-1939 and 1988-2005 on the same graph omitting the years 1940-1987. You can see that there is no general warming from the 1930's to 1990's and 2000's.

Figure 17


The next graph shows the above temperatures with 3 year smoothing to avoid the quasibiennial oscillation (QBO).

Figure 18


2005 is said to have been one of the warmest years during the ongoing warm period. In fact it is situated in the 11th position: Years that have been warmer are: 1934, 1938, 1943, 1949, 1961, 1974-1975, 1989-1990 and 2000. Besides the year 1930 shares the position, with the same annual temperature: 6.6 degrees.

So we can summarize and repeat: The years 1934-1939, 1988-1992 and 1999-2005 are practically equal in temperature (6.3-6.5 degrees). The effect of increasing CO2 is not seen in the temperature.

Where is the global warming? The answer: It happened before 1930. In 1867 the annual temperature was 1.6 degrees, in 1934 7.2 degrees. In 1930 the annual temperature was 6.6 degrees, in 2005 the annual temperature was 6.6 degrees. The four hottest years, the only ones above 7 degrees (7.1 or 7.2) occur in 1934, 1938, 1989 and 2000 (and in 1975). ******************************************************************

When did the cold period after the 1930's warm actually begin?

Let's begin with the 1940's and the amazingly cold years of 1940-1942.

In 1930-1939 the mean temperature was 6.0 degrees and in 1990-1999 5.9 degrees, which are equal in statistical terms, as above stated. Then suddenly there were the 3 years of 1940-1942 with temperatures in the range of 2.8-3.6 degrees. If we take the remaining decadal years 1943-1949, the mean temperature of these 7 years was 5.7 degrees. Now we have a mean temperature of 5.8-5.9 degrees for the years 1930-1949 if we omit those three cold years.

But that's not allowed, to omit outliers without reason is forgery. In fact, if we take the 5.7-6.0 degrees as the normal temperature for the years of 1930-1949, as we could take, if we look only at the median, that would however mean loss of information. It's the typical temperature, but not the whole picture.

Monthly averages.

Let's take a look at the monthly averages. I have divided the period of 1930-1949 in three subperiods on the basis warm-cold-warm or 1930-1939, 1940-1942 and 1943-1949 in search for the sudden drop of temperature in 1940 and the sudden recovery in 1943, albeit on a bit lowered level from 6.0 to 5.7 degrees.

period       janua febru  mars april   may  june
1. 1930-1939  -3.2  -4.7  -2.0   3.2   9.8  14.9
2. 1940-1942 -13.7 -11.4  -6.7   1.3   8.7  14.0	
3. 1943-1949  -4.6  -5.0  -2.3   3.5   9.6  14.5

diff. p2-p1  -10.5  -6.7  -4.7  -1.9  -1.1  -0.9 
diff. p3-p1   -1.4  -0.3  -0.3  -0.3  -0.2  -0.4

period        july augus septe octob novem decem
1. 1930-1939  18.3  17.1  11.5   6.1   2.7  -1.9
2. 1940-1942  18.3  16.0  10.7   5.4   0.4  -5.3
3. 1943-1949  18.1  16.2  12.3   5.8   1.8  -0.9  

diff. p2-p1    0.0  -1.1  -0.8  -0.7  -2.3  -3.4 
diff. p3-p1   -0.2  -0.9  +0.8  -0.3  -0.9  +1.0 

The actual temperatures of -15.9 in January 1942 and -13.7 in February 1940 were not broken as records from 1829 until the 1980's. The difference decreases then month after month until July. Then in July, in average the warmest month, the 1930's temperature 18.3 degrees was reached. Then follows of 3-month period from August to October when the temperature drop was "only" about one degree until beginning a marshalling to greater deviations again in November.

If we look first at the first part of the year, the differences begin with anomalously cold Januaries, record-breaking at that time the 110-year records in Helsinki, with a 10.5 degrees drop from the 1930's January temperatures. Still in February the drop was -6.7 degrees. With respect to these drops, it seems a mystery, why the Julies of both periods were equally warm, 18.3 degrees.

So a question to the modellers: Why this sudden drop in winters while at the same time the warm summers continued?

There is one hint for an explanation for this interruption in 1940-1942 in the first Modern Warm Period 1930-1949. The reason may lurk in the El Niño/ENSO string event in 1940-1941 which caused a high pressure centre in Southeast Asia and a low pressure centre in the Pacific Ocean just in the middle of the El Niño current. In fact the next ENSO event classified as very strong occurred in 1982-1983 continuing as moderate in 1986-1987. May it be the cause of the very cold winters in Europe in 1985-1987? As a sidestep we could here have also an explanation to the exceptional cold in 1867 in Northern and Central Europe. There was a prolonged ENSO event in 1864-1868.

After the 3.6 degree warming in 1943 from the previous year there was a slight decline until 1947, but two very warm years in 1948-1949. Because there are no warmer years than 1943 and 1949 and a couple of warmer than 1944-1945 and 1948 until the years 1974-1975, we can say that the global cooling began in 1950 and ended in 1973.

The next graphs show the 10 year average compared to the 3 year average temperature on monthly basis from January to December in tens of degrees Celsius (from -15.0 to +20.0).

Figure 19


The two ultracold periods in 1940-1942 and 1985-1987 compared

The three warmest periods since 1829 (likely since the Maunder minimum) occurred, if we rise the limit from about 6 to about 6.5 degrees, in 1934-1939 and 1988-1992 and is ongoing since 1999.

The temperatures in Helsinki were:

1934 7.2
1935 5.8
1936 6.3
1937 6.2
1938 7.1
1939 5.9
1988 5.9
1989 7.1
1990 6.7
1991 6.2
1992 6.7

The average temperature in 1934-39 was 6.4 degrees and in 1988-92 6.5 degrees, which is one degree above the mean temperature in 1934-92 (5.4 degrees). In 1999-2005 the mean temperature has been 6.3 degrees. So the mean temperature in 1940-1987 was only 5.1 degrees. Why?

And a more suprising question: why did the first hot period end abruptly in 1939 and a supercold three years began in 1940? And why was there an analogous situation in 1985-1992, however in reverse order. The three year supercold repeated in 1985-1987, but then suddenly in 1988 a hot period began.

The changes in temperature are very dramatic. In the first case a drop of 2.3 degrees from 1939 to 1940 or a 4.3 degree drop from 1938 to 1941. In the second case a rise of 2.6 degrees from 1987 to 1988 or a 3.8 degree rise from 1987 to 1989.

Here are the exact Helsinki temperatures:

1940 3.6
1941 2.8
1942 3.1
1985 3.4
1986 5.0
1987 3.3

The first supercold period has a mean temperature of 3.2 degrees, the second 3.9 degrees, quite a difference from the preceding (the first case) and from the following (the second case) periods, which were 3 degrees warmer. These kinds of temperatures are typical or even a bit low in the 1800's, but unique in 1900's. Even compared to the period of 1943-1984 of its temperature of 5.3 degrees, they are somewhat a mystery.

The cold period of 1950-1978 divided into three parts plus its relations to the surroundings 1934-1949 and 1988-2005

In all the figures the temperatures are tenths of degrees of Celsius (e.g. 55 = 5.5). All the values are annual means. Some of the values have been smoothed by three years to get rid of the QBO (quasibiennial oscillation). If that is done, it is mentioned. If no mention exists, the values are raw values. Values are from Helsinki (Kaisaniemi). Values have been compared with Uppsala and Stockholm values. The correlation coefficient with both is .95 and comparing graphs run, show practically the same shape.

Figure 20

QBO 1935-2004 shows clearly the dive of about 1 degree that reaches its coldest point in the 1960's. The warming begins again in the 1980's.


Towards cold

Now we begin with the two warm periods and by omitting them in two phases are left only with the cold period. The red line denotes the the mean temperature of 6.27 degrees in 1999-2005.

Figure 21A

Here is the whole picture: two warm phases and the intervening cold between them in 1934-1992.


Figure 21B

From the 42 years in this graph from 1943-1984, only 5 exceeds the mean in 1999-2005, denoted by the red squares. Two years are equal and 35 are below, the coldest over two degrees. The rare warm years are 1943, 1949, 1961 and 1974-1975. Deep dive follows every time these years, the most notable being the 3 degrees drop from 1975 to 1976. Notice the coldest periods 1962-1971, when 5.5 degrees is not overrided and 1976-1981 when even 5 degrees is not overrided.


Figure 21C

Here you see the coldest part of the late 1900's. The temperature in 1950-1981 has small oscillations. Of the 32 years only 3 override the mean temp in 1999-2005 denoted by the red squares. There are two attempts to rise from 1956 to 1961 and from 1969 to 1975, but both ultimately fail.


The cold split into three phases.

Being nearly decadal, we can call them 1950's, 1960's and 1970's. 1950's are characterized by great (partly QBO) oscillations. 1960's are helplessly cold from just over 4 degrees to max 5.5 degrees the mean being 1-1.5 degrees below today's values. The 1970's are an odd phenomenon: a rise from 4.5 degrees to over 7 degrees in 1975 and a drop to 4 degrees in 1976.

Figure 22A

The years 1950-1962. Solar influence could be possibly seen here. First the drop from 1953 to 1956 (only 3.8 degrees!) and QBO-oscillating rise from 1956 to 1961, the only year warmer than today's mean. There was a sunspot minimum in 1954 and highest ever recorded maximum in 1957/58 which may have caused the greatest ever officially recorded thunderstorm in Helsinki in 1960.


Figure 22B

The temps in 1962-1971 are really anomalous in the 1900's, rather they resemble something observed in the 1800's. If we seek some solar explanation, there is one possibility. Long sunspot periods seem to be related to cold times, short to warm times. In the 1800's the sunspot periods were mainly long and temperatures low. Since 1913 all the sunspot periods had been short, about 10.3 years, when the mean is 11.1 years. But now the sunspot period that began in 1964 lasts to 1976, nearly 12 years. It had a low and long-lasting maximum from 1967 to 1970.


Figure 22C

Since the temperature measurements began in Helsinki in 1829 the annual temperature has overrided 7 degrees only 5 times: 1934, 1938, 1975, 1989 and 2000.


The cold period of 1950-1978 plus its relations to the surroundings with QBO (quasi-biennial oscillation) removed.

In all the figures the temperatures are tenths of degrees of Celsius (e.g. 55 = 5.5). All the values are annual means. Some of the values have been smoothed by three years to get rid of the QBO (quasibiennial oscillation). If that is done, it is mentioned. If no mention exists, the values are raw values. Values are from Helsinki (Kaisaniemi). Values have been compared with Uppsala and Stockholm values. The correlation coefficient with both is .95 and comparing graphs run, show practically the same shape.

Figure 23A

QBO 1935-1991. The surrounding phenomena of this cold period are easily seen: the warm times in late 1930's and in the turning years from the 1980's to 1990's plus their cold buffers in the early 1940's and the mid 1980's. Notice that the two warm periods are warmer than the 1999-2005 warm period denoted by the red squares. Not much, but anyway.


Figure 23B

QBO 1944-1983. The beginning is a little bit hesitating but the rise is very decisive. Clearly colder than in 1999-2005.


Figure 23C

QBO 1951-1980. The trend towards colder is clearly seen in the 1960's as well as the great jump in the mid 1970's.


Figure 24A

QBO 1951-1961. To be or not to be. Would there had been a rush to the 1960's colds without the top sunspot maximum in 1958-59?


Figure 24B

QBO 1963-1970. Cold and still colder. 1.5 degrees below today's values. Back towards the 1800's, both temperature and Sun's maximum.


Figure 24C

QBO 1970-1977. This jump succeeds to achieve today's temperatures but collapses immediately.


The warm periods of 1934-1939, 1988-1992 and 1999-2005 compared.

In all the figures the temperatures are tenths of degrees of Celsius (e.g. 55 = 5.5). All the values are annual means. Some of the values have been smoothed by three years to get rid of the QBO (quasibiennial oscillation). If that is done, it is mentioned. If no mention exists, the values are raw values. Values are from Helsinki (Kaisaniemi). Values have been compared with Uppsala and Stockholm values. The correlation coefficient with both is .95 and comparing graphs run, show practically the same shape.

Figure 25A

1934-1939. Was it warmer than today or is it a tie with 1999-2005? The 1934 and 1938 overriding 7 degrees are still two of the only five annual temperatures overriding 7 degrees during the 180 years of observations.


Figure 25B

1988-1992. In average this is the warmest 5-year period together with the years 1934-1938 since 1829 in Helsinki. But only very slightly warmer than 1999-2003.


Figure 25C

1999-2005. Only the years 2000 and 2005 have been warmer than the mean of the years 1934-1939. The years 2001-2004 were colder.


The cold period in 1950-1981 between two warm periods.

The decadal mean temperature after 1930.

In the next table the Helsinki temperature in 1930-2005 has been divided into 7 decadal parts. To keep it in synchrony with the sunspot cycles, a 10-year period has been kept except in 1970-1981, because the sunspot period at that time (1964-1976) was 12 years, when all the other sunspot cycles after 1930 have been around 10 years.

years       degrees Celsius  	sunspot min
1930-1939   6.0			1934 (10)
1940-1949   5.0			1944 (10)
1950-1959   5.2			1954 (10)
1960-1969   5.0			1964 (12)
1970-1981   5.2			1976 (10)
1982-1991   5.6			1986 (10)
1992-2001   5.9			1996 (10)
(2002-2005  6.1			2009 (13))    

So, in the 1990's on we are again in the temps that reigned in the 1930's. 1940/50-1980 were one degree colder. There is here no global warming here, only a return to the level we had already achieved in the 1930's but lost for some decades.

During 1999-2005 the warmest years in Helsinki are 2000 (7.2 degrees) and 2005 (6.6 degrees), the coldest 2003 (5.6 degrees) and 2001 (5.9 degrees). The typical temperature is 6.1-6.3 degrees. So not much change from 1988-1992.

Yearly temperatures in 1930-2003 in Helsinki arranged in pseudo-decadal table synchronized with sunspot cycles.

The latest sunspot minima have occurred in 1923, 1933, 1944, 1954, 1964, 1976, 1986 and 1996. The length of all the cycles, except one, can be regarded to have been 10.3 years. The variation of 0.2-0.3 years in officially accepted values are according to my statistical analysis (website on within acceptable error range. The one exception is the cycle number 20 from 1964 to 1976, which lasted 11.8 years (or one Jupiter year, which may not be accidental). So to get it straight, I have used in the following table decadal cycles except for the cycle 20, for which I use an approximation of 12 years.

The maximum follows the minimum after about 3.5 years, but when the low values usually prevails about one year, the high values can last for 3, even 4 years. During the period 1923-2000 there are however two exception for the 3.5-year rule. The cycle 16, which began in 1923 was at maximum 5 years later, in 1928, and the long cycle 20 beginning in 1964 was at maximum over 4 years later, just in end of the year 1968.

N = Spot-Min, X = Spot-Max
 1930-  1940-  1950-  1960-  1970-  1982-  1992-  2002-
  6.6    3.6    5.5    5.0    5.3    5.7    6.4    6.1
  4.2    2.8    5.5    6.8    6.1    6.1    5.5    5.6
  5.8    3.1    4.7    4.6    5.5    6.1    5.3    6.2
N 5.0    6.7    6.3    4.9    6.7    3.4    6.2    6.6
  7.2  N 6.1  N 5.6  N 5.5    7.1  N 5.0  N 4.9
  5.8    5.0    4.6    4.9  N 4.2    3.3    6.2  N 
  6.3    5.3    3.8    4.1    4.6    5.9    5.4
X 6.2  X 4.4  X 5.7    5.5    3.9  X 7.1    6.3
  7.1    5.8    4.2  X 4.8  X 4.8    6.7  X 7.2
  5.9    6.9    6.3    4.3    4.8    6.2    5.9

To get a clearer picture of the warm and cold years, in the following table I have omitted all values between 4.0 and 5.9 degrees:

N = Spot-Min, X = Spot-Max
 1930-  1940-  1950-  1960-  1970-  1982-  1992-  2002-
  6.6    3.6                                6.4    6.1
         2.8           6.8    6.1    6.1               
         3.1                         6.1           6.2
N        6.7    6.3           6.7    3.4    6.2    6.6
  7.2  N 6.1  N      N        7.1  N      N    
                            N        3.3    6.2 N
  6.3           3.8                            
X 6.2  X      X               3.9  X 7.1    6.3
  7.1                X      X        6.7  X 7.2
         6.9    6.3                  6.2       

We can see that most normal decade was that from 1960-1969, which contained 9 normal and 1 warm year. From 1950 to 1959 there were 7 normal, 2 warm and 1 cold year. Together this means that from the 20 year between 1950 and 1969 16 years were normal or actually average as regards the temperature.

Calculated in this way the periods 1930-1939 and 1992-2001 were equal with both having 5 warm years. The 5 warm years in 1982-1991 were compromised with 2 cold years.

To make things still simpler I have made the definition of warm years still stricter, accepting as warm only years whose temperature exceeds 7 degrees.

N = Spot-Min, X = Spot-Max
 1930-  1940-  1950-  1960-  1970-  1982-  1992-  2002-
   --    3.6     --     --     --     --     --     --  
   --    2.8     --     --     --     --     --     --
   --    3.1     --     --     --     --     --     --
N  --     --     --     --     --    3.4     --     --
  7.2  N  --  N  --  N  --    7.1  N  --  N  --
   --     --     --     --  N  --    3.3     -- N
   --     --    3.8     --     --     --     --
X  --  X  --  X  --     --    3.9  X 7.1     --
  7.1     --     --  X  --  X  --     --  X 7.2
   --     --     --     --     --     --     --

By this criteria there are 5 warm years during 1930-2004, namely 1934, 1938, 1975, 1989 and 2000. The 1930's warm years are near the sunspot minimum and the sunspot maximum. Similarly 1975 is near the minimum and 1989 and 2000 at the maximum. Thus none of the five warm years is further than a year from the exact minimum or maximum.

Of the 7 cold years two are lonely ones and both are near the sunspot maximum, namely one in 1957, just one year before the highest known sunspot maximum and the other in 1978, just 3 years after super-warm 1975, which interrupted the nearly 40 years without any super-warm year.

Two of the super-cold years are in 1985 and 1987 just surrounding the sunspot minimum in 1986. After these years begins the second warm period in the 20th century. The first period is interrupted with 3 super-cold years in 1940-1942. These are the only super-years that are not near either sunspot minimum or maximum. What is characteristic for all these super-cold years, is that especially winters in all these five years were extremely cold, in fact the coldest during the nearly 180 years of observations in Helsinki.

The relatively cold period in 1950-1973.

When the temperature of the periods of 1930-1939 and 1992-2001/2003 was 5.9-6.0 degrees, the mean temperature for the cold period 1950-1973 was only 5.2 degrees. During these 24 years there were only 4 years when the temperature exceeded the mean of the 1930's or 1990's. And the exceedings were in three cases very small (6.1-6.3 degrees) and only one year really was superwarm, namely the year 1961 after a year of 1960 with exceptional amount of thunderstorms following the highest known sunspot peak in 1957-1958. To add to the anomaly of these years, the by far coldest year during this cold period preceded just the maximum in 1956.

To give an intuitive picture of the yearly temperatures in 1950-1973, I have reconstructed the following table. I have divided the period into four subperiods: 1. cold years: temp. 3.8-4.3 degrees, 2. medium years: temp. 4.6-5.0 degrees, 3. warm years: 5.3-5.7 degrees and 4. very warm years: 6.1-6.8 degrees. The number in the categories are 4, 8, 8 and 4 cases. The gaps without years between are real gaps: there are no years in those temperature ranges. To avoid the mess of numbers, I have used numbers only for the 4 cold and 4 warm years. - = moderate years, + = warm years and N = sunspot minimum, X = sunspot maximum. Obs. The sunspot cycles 1944-1954 and 1954-1964 were of normal length in the 1900's or 10.3 years, the cycle of 1964-1976 lasted 11.8 years (one Jovian year), which was normal in the 1800's.

year  temperature    / year  temperature    / year  temperature
1950  +              / 1960  -              / 1970  -
1951  +              / 1961  6.8 very warm  / 1971  +
1952  -              / 1962  -              / 1972  6.1 very warm
1953  6.3 very warm  / 1963  -              / 1973  +
1954N +              / 1964N +
1955  -              / 1965  - 
1956  3.8 very cold  / 1966  4.1 very cold
1957X +              / 1967  +
1958  4.2 very cold  / 1968X -
1959  6.3 very warm  / 1969  4.3 very cold

The oscillations around the high maximum in 1957 was already mentioned, but whatabout the influence of the sunspot minima and maxima during the whole material from 1930 to 2003? To investigate this, I have calculated the mean temperature of three years for each minimum and maximum: the exact year and the preceding and the following year. Abbreviations: Sunspot minimum temperatures = SNT and sunspot maximum temperatures = SXT.

The analysis shows that for the warm 1930's and 1990's the SNT was 5.8-6.0 degrees and the SXT 6.5 degrees. During the cold decades of 1950's and 1970's with the 10.3 years sunspot cycle the SNT was 5.3-5.5 degrees and the SXT 4.5-4.6 degrees. During the long sunspot cycle beginning in the 1960's the values were practically the same: SNT = 5.1 degrees and SXT = 4.9 degrees. The greatest difference was in the 1980's: SNT = 3.9 degrees and SXT = 6.6 degrees.

In summary: During warm times the SXT is warmer SNT, during cold times the SNT is warmer than SXT.

The new beginning of the Modern Warm Period or the oddities of 1974-1975 and 1985-1987

In roughly terms we can say that the temperature in Helsinki was about 6 degrees in 1930-1939, about 5 degrees in 1950-1973 and again about 6 degrees in 1988-2004.

With one exception (1931 = 4) the temperatures in 1930-1939 and again in 1988-2004 are in the range of 5 to 7 degrees, and again with one exception (1961 = 7) the temperatures in 1950-1973 are in the range of 4 to 6 degrees. Now we can add that the mean temperature in 1974-1987 continued the previous cold period having a mean temperature of 5.0 degrees, and the years 1976-1984 had also a mean temperature of 5.0 degrees in the range of 4 to 6 degrees. Why then separate this period from the cold period?

The reason is that it seems to be a transition period from the cold period of 1950-1973 (5 degrees) to the warm period that began in 1988 (6 degrees) thus resuming the period of 1930-1939 (6 degrees). It begins with two years, 1974 and 1975, which are extremely warm, 6.7 and 7.1 degrees, respectively. 7 degrees have been overridden only 5 times in 1930-2004 (twice in the 1930's, 7.1 and 7.2 degrees, during this 1975 occasion, in the beginning of the ongoing GW: 1989 = 7.1 degrees and during the peak of ongoing GW in 2000: 7.2 degrees).

The warm peak in 1974-1975 is exceptional not only by its height, but also by its duration. Both the 7-degree peaks in the 1930's were one year peaks with preceding and surrounding years being 1-2 degrees colder. The same happened with the peak of year 2000. Only comparable case by both height and duration is the beginning of the ongoing GW in 1989-1990 7.1 and 6.7 degrees or the same amounts but in reverse order).

First we can observe that the winters were very warm. The winters were as warm or warmer next time only when the ongoing GW period began in 1988. The 0.4 degree difference between the years is due to the late-summer (July-Autumn) difference: 1974 belongs in this respect to the cold period, 1975 to the warm period. Could this have something to do with change in Southern Oscillation apparently due to the changed behavior of the Sun? We had had these 10-year periods in Sun's activity throughout the cold period, but now we had had a Sun activity period of 12 years or one Jovian year in 1964-1976. According to my theory, the solar wind is reduced during these prolonged periods of Sun's activity with a burst of activity just before the minimum, which activates the next cycle.

After a return to the colder 5-degree climate in 1976-1981, the 6-degree GW period seems to begin in 1982, but it lasts only three years. In 1985 and 1987 we have two supercold years, rivalled since 1930 only with the years 1940-1942. They yearly means drops to 3.4 degrees in 1985 and to 3.3 degrees in 1987. It's mainly caused by the supercold winters, and the chill in 1987 also partly by the cold summer. The winter in 1985 with both January and February having a temperature -14 degrees Celsius already breaks the all-time records, but worse is still coming: the January temperature in 1987 of -16.5 still stands as a record cold monthly temperature since the beginning of the temperature measures in Helsinki in 1829. The daily temperatures broke also the records, being at its lowest at -36 degrees Celsius. It needs to be mentioned that the intervening year or 1986 was saved in the yearly level of being labeled as super-cold only because of its relatively warm summer, and the winter was not so harsh ("only" -10 degrees in February).

So this is the way the ongoing GW (not from global warming, but from global warm) began. In 1989 we had already 7.1 degrees and the peak was reached in 2000 with 7.2 degrees, both by the way peak years of the sunspot activity (1986 was a minimum year).

Whatever the cause for these three-very-cold-winters series they seem to repeat in about every 45 years. From 1894 to 1939 there were not a single January that would have been colder than -10 degrees. Then in 1893 we find again a harsh winter, with January -13 and February -15 degrees. And in 1895 the February temperature was -13 degrees. Going backwords there are single cold Januaries and some double ones, but the next three-winters-in-row occurs 1848-1850 (-11, -10 and -14 degrees). But now the February deviates from the row. It has throughout this period a normal 1800's temperature (about -5), but the Februaries are cold in 1844-1847 (between -11 and -15 degrees). It is interesting that the global warming since the Dalton minimum in the 1810's was halted in the latter part of the 1840's and turned in a chilling that had its low in the late 1890's. And this correlates very well with what we know about the spottiness of the Sun at that time.

Global cooling in 1829-1867 and global warming in 1867-1929.

There has been no overall global warming since 1930, when the Modern Warm Period began. It has a temperature of 5-6 degree in Helsinki. What usually today is called global warming is only the recovery of the 1930's temperature in the 1990's or a recovery to 6 degrees from the 1950-1980 reigned 5 degrees. The real global warming however happened in two phases after the Maunder minimum. The second one took 100 years to climb from 4 degrees to the 5-6 degrees level where we now live.

The mean decadal temperatures

years     temperature in Celsius
1830-1839 4.2 (max. year = 4.8)
1840-1849 4.0              5.0
1850-1859 4.2              5.3
1860-1869 3.8              5.7
1870-1879 3.9              5.7
1880-1889 4.3              5.4 
1890-1899 4.6              5.7
1900-1909 4.4              5.7
1910-1919 4.7              6.1
1920-1929 4.8              6.1 
------------- the beginning of the Modern Warm Period
1930-1939 5.9              7.2
1950-1987 5.1              6.8
1988-2004 6.0              7.2

This shows very clearly when the global warming, at least in Helsinki, really happened. After the recovery of the Dalton minimum, there was a slight mini-Dalton in the 1860's and 1870's. About 1880 began a steady rise towards warm from the 4 degrees Helsinki. Then suddenly there was a jump to the 6 degree Helsinki, a one-degree jump in one decade. Then 5 degrees reigned 38 years, and the recovery to 6 degrees happened in 1988. But since then, now already for 17 years, there has been a steady 5-to-7 degree Modern Warm Period (MWP2) without any trend to any direction, only small oscillation.

The mean temperatures during the 16 sunspot cycles since 1833

years          yr temperature in Celsius
min  max  end
1833 1837 1842 10 4.1 (max. year = 5.0)
1843 1848 1855 13 4.0              4.8
1856 1860 1866 11 4.0              5.7
1867 1870 1877 11 3.7              5.7
1878 1883 1888 11 4.3              5.4
1889 1894 1900 12 4.5              5.7 
1901 1907 1912 12 4.7              6.1
1913 1917 1922 10 4.7              6.1
-------------- the beginning of the Modern Warm Period
1923 1928 1932 10 5.0              6.6
1933 1937 1943 11 5.4              7.2 
1944 1947 1953 10 5.6              6.9
1954 1957 1963 10 5.2              6.8
1964 1968 1975 12 5.4              7.1
1976 1979 1985 10 4.9              6.1
1986 1989 1995 10 5.8              7.1
1996 2000    ?  ? 6.0              7.2 calc. till 2004 (9 yrs)

The real rise or global warming as seen in Helsinki occurred from the mini-Dalton in 1867-1877 to the cycle 1944-1953 or it was nearly 2 degrees in 70-80 years. After a small drop in 1954-1985, the temperature rises in 1986-2004 0.4. Notice the mean sunspot cycle length of 11.1 years before MWP2 and 10.3 years during the MWP2.

The next graph shows the rise with a logarithmic best fit, which shows a steep rise in the beginning and moderate rise in the end. The rise begins deeply in the 1810's Dalton minimum and will reach its maximum in 2025. Both the best fit cycle and the Gleissberg cycle (see below) suggest that there is a global cooling ahead before 2050. With this classification the 1930's high does not appear as high as the 1990's, because the 10 warm years are divided partly into the previous and following periods, diluted by the colds in 1920's and in the beginning of the 1940's. The last period 1996-2004 belongs wholly to the MWP2, the second last period is diluted by the cold years of 1986 and 1987.

The temperatures are in tenths of degrees Celsius.

Figure 26


According to my studies published in ,the best estimate of the Sun's intensity is seen via the Gleissberg cycle (see more in that study):

1. cycles
2. years             
3. total length
4. mean length                            
5. total length in Jovian years
6. change in 5.
7. the mean maximum R(M)
8. the total length graphically (the limits: *=71, *=84)
9. obs!

   1.        2.   3.   4.   5.    6.   7.    8.             9.
 1- 7 1755-1833 78.7 11.2 6.63 +0.03  96 *     : x    *
 2- 8 1766-1843 77.0 11.0 6.49 -0.14 105 *     x :    * near mean 
 3- 9 1775-1856 80.5 11.5 6.79 +0.30 107 *     : : x  * diff < 2yrs
 4-10 1784-1867 82.5 11.8 6.95 +0.16  98 *     : :   x* diff < 2yrs
 5-11 1798-1878 80.6 11.5 6.79 -0.17  98 *     : : x  * diff < 2yrs
 6-12 1810-1889 79.0 11.3 6.66 -0.13 102 *     : x    *
 7-13 1823-1901 78.4 11.2 6.61 -0.05 107 *     :x:    *
 8-14 1833-1913 79.7 11.4 6.72 +0.11 106 *     : :x   *
 9-15 1843-1923 80.1 11.4 6.75 +0.03 100 *     : :x   *
10-16 1856-1933 77.8 11.1 6.56 -0.19  93 *     :x:    * near mean 
11-17 1867-1944 77.0 11.0 6.49 -0.07  96 *     x :    * near mean 
12-18 1878-1954 75.3 10.8 6.35 -0.14  97 *   x : :    *
13-19 1889-1964 75.1 10.7 6.33 -0.02 115 *   x : :    *
14-20 1901-1976 74.8 10.7 6.31 -0.02 119 *   x : :    *
15-21 1913-1986 73.1 10.4 6.16 -0.15 133 * x   : :    *
16-22 1923-1996 72.8 10.4 6.14 -0.02 141 * x   : :    *
17-23 1933-2009 75.3 10.8 6.34 +0.20 141 *   x : :    * est.

And the same graphically. Coincidental similarity between the temperature and Sun's intensity or do we have here the explanation, at partly at least, of the socalled global warming? My theory of the physical connection is based on the fact that the more intense the Sun is, the more there are plasma eject events that through collisions via Earth through the magnetic poles causes except aurorae and disturbances in the electric power grids, also transforms their kinetic energy in the sudden collision with the Earth's atmosphere, into warm. The changes in the the temperature of the outer core of the Sun is not what matters, but what matters is the intensity of the solar wind and especially the frequency of the solar storms.

Notice also that the Gleissberg minimum of the lengths of the sunspot cycles is reached (which means maximum of the intensity). There is now a standstill and the a reversal, which according to my theory means colder times beginning in 2020-2030. Is there a new Dalton or rightaway a new beginning of Maunder-minimum-like times about 2050, remains to be seen.

Figure 27



1. The peak temperature after the Medieval Maximum (930-1030 and the 1100's) was reached after the Little Ice Age (1400-1700) again in 1930's and 1990's. After 2001 there has been no global warming and a global cooling began in 2006 which may lead to a Dalton minimum, previously experienced in 1800-1825.

2. The sunspot maxima and minima are clearly seen in the data just during the period when man is supposed to be guilty of warming the atmosphere (minima in 1986 and 1996, maxima in 1989 and 2000). The level of activity is in accord with the temperature oscillation (The cycle peaking in 1989 reached 160 Wolfs, the cycle peaking in 2000 reached 120 Wolfs). The virtually spotless Sun since September 2007 seems to lead to a global cooling.

3. The 1930's and the 1990's are equal in temperature. The mean temperature of the 1930's is 6.0 degrees Celsius and of the 1990's 5.9 degrees the difference being statistically insignicant. So the result is a tie. If we assume a UHI effect, the 1930's may have been slightly warmer than the 1990's.

4. There is one degree colder period from 1940 to 1987 compared to the preceding 10 years and following years.

5. A real rise shows from 1830 to 1930. There is first a much colder climate (by about 2 degrees) than today and then a gradual rise from 4 degrees to 6 degrees from about 1880 to 1930. Various proxies show that the temperature were last as high and partly even higher around the year 1000 AD and again in the 1100's. That's the time when Greenland was green as the name given by the Vikings indicates.

6. Thus the 175-year period investigated (1829-2004) can be divided into 5 subperiods:
--- 1. the cold period before 1880 (possibly at least from Dalton minimum's minimum in the 1810's): 4 degrees
--- 2. the real and only permanent participation of Helsinki in the global warming from 1880 to 1930: a rise from 4 to 6 degrees.
--- 3. the first part of the Modern Warm Period (MWP2) during the 1930's and partly during the 1940's: 6 degrees.
--- 4. the medium period from 1950 to 1987: 5 degrees.
--- 5. the second part of the Modern Warm Period since 1988: 6 degrees.

7. The temperature of the whole period correlates neatly both with the length of the sunspot cycles and the socalled Gleissberg cycle (71-84 years).

The picture that started this analysis will also end it,
but with some explanations and comments.

Figure 28

The sunspot numbers are smoothed by the Hale sunspot cycle or 22 years. This means that the min-max -cycle has pairly been taken away so that the greater trends can be seen more clearly.

We have yearly sunspot numbers from 1700, monthly from 1749 and daily from 1818. The sunspot numbers before 1843 are calibrated to correspond the formula adopted then. The sunspot numbers in 1600-1699 are mainly derived and calibrated from aurorae doublechecked with sporadic observations from 1610 on.

Using 11 year smoothing we get nearer today's situation.

Figure 28A

I leave to you to seek resemblances with the temperature here on Earth. You can comment to me, if you see any. You can comment to me, if you don't. Or just wonder about the mother nature.

Or look it this way.

Figure 29


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